Convergence and integration trends in the broadband market

Widespread deployment of broadband technologies will support substantial integration of the different services and applications. The combination of Triple Play and digital home products is viewed by the experts as a particularly promising prospect.

Some 45% of respondents rate the growth prospects of integrated Triple Play and digital home applications by the year 2010 as high to very high. For the year 2015, as many as 67% of the experts share this view. Similarly, two thirds of respondents expect such package deals as are currently on the German broadband market to have taken a firm hold by the year 2015. A further 29% consider this a possible scenario (Figure 35).

Figure 35:		Future prospects of integrated Triple Play and digital home products in Germany (broadband experts, digital home experts and experts from government agencies)

These experts predict a similar trend for the market share of Triple Play and digital home applications. Expectations for these product packages in the year 2005 as a percentage of the whole broadband market are still very low at around 2%. However by the year 2015, respondents rate such market share at around 24%. For Triple Play offerings alone, market share is expected to grow by 2015 to reach 32%, while digital home offerings are likely to account for 24% (Figure 36).

Figure 36:		Growth rates for Triple Play, digital home and combined product packages by the year 2015 (broadband experts, digital home experts and experts from government agencies)

Such trends will also have repercussions for the broadband market. Around 70% of the experts predict that product packaging of Triple Play and digital home will give rise to new business models in the broadband market. Some 43% are of the opinion that product packages will not be the only change. By the year 2015 they are predicting full-scale convergence of the Triple Play and digital home markets.

As well as this merging of Triple Play and digital home products, two currently separate forms of access to broadband Internet are expected to converge more closely in the coming years: mobile and stationary access. More than three quarters of the experts consulted anticipate that by the year 2015, access to broadband Internet will be possible at any time and in any place.

Mobile technology is also expected to offer consumers the option of downloading their preferred content via broadband in future, which will allow trouble-free downloading of very high data volumes, such as video files. (Some 64% of respondents agree). Around 68% of experts even anticipate that various broadband technologies such as DSL, WLAN and UMTS will converge to such an extent by 2015 that consumers will no longer be aware they are switching from one network to another. To achieve this, end devices will be required that allow the integrated and convenient use of both mobile and stationary technologies. Around 52% of respondents expect such devices to be mainstream by the year 2015 (Figure 37).

Figure 37:		Effects of the integration of stationary and mobile broadband Internet (broadband experts, digital home experts and experts from government agencies)

Germany’s current development status in the sphere of combined mobile and stationary broadband Internet usage however leaves plenty of scope for improvement in international terms. In the year 2004, only 1% of broadband customers in Germany used both mobile and stationary Internet access; in the same year in South Korea the figure was as high as 50%5. While dual access in Germany is expected to rise to around 32% by the year 2015, anticipated growth over the same period in South Korea will see it reach 77% in that country.

The upshot of this prediction is that the relatively fledging broadband market in Germany is headed for substantial change in the coming years. New technologies will allow current visions — like that of integrated Triple Play and digital home products and the convergence of mobile and stationary broadband usage — to become a reality. This is bound to give rise to new business models in the process. However, in all these trends, Germany must be careful not to lose touch with the leading broadband nations. This applies in particular to the integration of stationary and mobile Internet.