The information society in 2015

Information and knowledge pave the way to social and economic progress. Consequently, some 77% of the experts consulted agree to a moderate to very high degree that the information industry in the year 2015 will be the key sector of the German economy.

Further proof of the already considerable and growing economic importance of the information industry is provided by their assessment of the ICT market’s contribution to the German economy (Figure 38).

Figure 38:		Sales by the ICT industry as a percentage of gross domestic product in Germany through 2015 (broadband experts, digital home experts and experts from government agencies)

In the year 2004, sales by information technology and telecommunications providers (ICT) contributed around 6%6 to Germany’s gross domestic product (GDP). By the year 2010, this figure is expected to rise to 9% of GDP, representing growth of 41%. Five years later, the ICT sector will account for 12% of German GDP, which amounts to growth of 34%.

This trend will have far-reaching consequences, according to the experts. The growing importance of the information industry will generate an increased demand for skilled labor. Around 44% of respondents agree to a high or very high degree that the information society will make a substantial contribution to job creation by the year 2015.

How important in this context is an efficient broadband infrastructure? Around 71% of respondents agree to a high or very high degree that superior broadband technology — for generating, storing and sharing information — will be a crucial factor to Germany’s success in the globally competitive marketplace.

Estimates of the future competitiveness of Germany in terms of broadband infrastructure tend to be rather conservative. In a comparison of nine different countries, Germany occupies the lower midrange (Table 2).

Table 2:		Comparison of nine countries: Competitiveness in terms of broadband technology by 2015(broadband experts, digital home experts and experts from government agencies)

South Korea, the US and Japan are rated the top global players in the year 2015. These countries currently have a reputation as innovative forerunners in terms of their broadband infrastructure, with broadband penetration in South Korea, for instance, currently lying at 73%7. With an average score of 6.4, Germany lies in 6th place in this comparative analysis of nine countries, behind Sweden and Great Britain. According to the experts, France, Italy and Spain will bring up the rear in the year 2015.

There are other factors apart from broadband infrastructure that will have a crucial effect on the development of the information society in Germany (Figure 39). Over three quarters of the experts consulted are of the view that a high level of user confidence in the security of information and communications technology as well as an ability to win over current “offliners” will have a positive effect on future growth.

Figure 39:		Influence of different factors on the future development of the information society in Germany (broadband experts, digital home experts and experts from government agencies)

Due to the general demographic shift, the proportion of older members of the population is growing. For this reason, addressing their needs in the development of an information society is viewed as particularly important. The majority of experts consulted are agreed on this point: by the year 2015 the use of broadband Internet will be taken for granted by older members of society as part of their everyday life.

There is certainly considerable potential in this segment. The highest rate of increase in Internet users (almost 100%) is anticipated in the over-50 age group (Figure 40). While in the year 2004, only around 28% of people over 50 were online8, by the year 2015 the figure is predicted to climb to 56%.

Figure 40:		Percentage of onliners in various age groups by 2015 (broadband experts, digital home experts and experts from government agencies)

Information represents the main commodity in the knowledge economy. This makes the ability to use information strategically, or so-called media competence, one of the most important skills for individuals and companies alike. Three quarters of the experts rate the skill of being able to sift out relevant information from a host of available data and process it accordingly as the crucial factor in corporate success by the year 2015.

The development of the information society not only means changes to economic and job market structures, but also to the life of society as a whole. This is clearly evident on the basis of media usage trends (Figure 41).

Figure 41:		Amount of time spent on various media from 1995 to 2015 (broadband experts) 9

The amount of time spent on media is climbing — by comparison with 2004. By 2015, the experts predict further growth in media usage of 72 minutes per day. This growth is ascribed almost solely to the Internet. While the only other form of media usage expected to grow slightly is TV viewing time, it is anticipated that less time will be spent on radio and print media.

As far as television is concerned, the new opportunities for this mass medium are also closely associated with broadband technology. Broadband-based TV not only represents an alternative distribution path, but also supports additional functionalities like flexible access and interactivity. This trend may, however, not necessarily work to the complete detriment of classic TV; parallel use of different forms of TV in the household will probably occur.

To sum up, it is clear that the significance of information as an economic commodity will continue to grow. In order to maximize this potential, companies, government agencies and individuals will have to continue developing new skills. The comparison of nine countries putting Germany in only 6th place shows that there is considerable scope for development in this area. Particular attention will need to be paid to social changes like the general demographic shift. The reward for addressing these issues will be a significant increase in the overall competitiveness of the German economy.