Market growth

In the recent past, Internet TV has been greeted by a wave of enthusiasm, particularly in the relevant media reports. Against this backdrop, broadband experts were surveyed for their views on the growth of the Internet TV market. In their opinion, some 2.6 million people will be using Internet TV by 2010 (Figure 17). By 2015 there will be a rapid rise in the number of Internet TV users to more than seven million.

Figure 17:		Predicted growth of Internet TV (broadband experts)

This growth forecast by the broadband experts clearly shows that in Germany, Internet TV can evolve into a mass market in a relatively short period of time. This view is also confirmed by the positive acceptance of Internet TV among consumers. "Basically I am very interested in Internet TV and the associated possibilities and options in terms of entertainment and interaction" - every second consumer concurs with this statement to a high to very high extent.

To a high to very high extent, almost every second consumer expects Internet TV to improve his or her media experience and his or her general access to information. Thanks to the diversity of programs and topics that comes with Internet TV, consumers also expect the amount of program choice to go up. This positive response on the part of future users is also clearly expressed in their anticipated TV consumption patterns (Figure 18).

Accordingly, the intensity of use (high to very high extent) for conventional TV will decline from 73% in 2006 to below 48% in 2010. During the same time frame, the intensity of use of Internet TV will grow from 7% to more than 47%. Every second consumer surveyed also thinks that because of its many advantages (better picture, interactivity options) Internet TV will soon be competing directly with conventional TV.

Figure 18:		Use of conventional TV and Internet TV (consumers)

People in Germany associate Internet TV with many distinct advantages, have high expectations of the medium and a high readiness to use the medium. It is therefore quite clear that traditional TV in Germany is facing some fundamental changes. These changes can also be identified in consumer preferences for Internet TV providers (Figure 19).

In this respect most people want telecom providers to deliver Internet TV products. Traditional television providers are only second on their wish list, followed after a considerable gap by cable TV and Internet companies.

Figure 19:		Internet TV provider preferences (consumers)

Looking at these findings, one thing appears to be certain: we will be seeing a significant change in traditional TV usage patterns in Germany. Whether this development will occur with increasing competition or cooperation is hard to say. More then every second consumer believes that Internet TV and conventional TV will converge and merge in the future. Only one consumer in three on the other hand thinks that Internet TV, thanks to its many advantages, will replace conventional TV sooner or later.