Market trends and impact

The international broadband Internet market is affected by many different factors. New broadband internet applications are continually arriving on the market, and new fixed and mobile services are making existing applications faster and more flexible. Increasing convergence is moreover making it more difficult for broadband Internet providers to position themselves in the market.

However, none of this makes it any the less important for a national economy to have a high-performance broadband infrastructure, as the main competitive factor. Over 80 percent of the international experts surveyed assigned this aspect a “high” or “very high&rdquo level of importance. And over half of them saw global mobile networking playing an especially important role in the broadband Internet market (see Fig. 57).

Fig. 57:		Critical factors for broadband Internet growth in the triad regions (International experts)

In future years a national broadband Internet infrastructure is going to become even more critical to a country's ability to compete internationally. Countries with a high-quality broadband Internet infrastructure will generally be better integrated in the world economy, and will be able to contribute to the creation of the global information society. But any country hoping to join this group of innovative nations first has to create the right sort of social and economic policy framework.

As important factors in this context, the experts surveyed cited a society that is open to new technological advances, and conditions that are adequate to stimulate investments in broadband infrastructure. Government assistance for broadband Internet projects was also viewed as critical to the successful development of a global, competitive information society (see Fig. 58).

Fig. 58:		Significance of various factors to competitiveness in the global information society (International experts)

As well as requiring appropriate policy frameworks, the successful advancement of the global information society is clearly also dependent on the users themselves. A high level of broadband Internet use within a society will translate into more active networking between its members. This point was highlighted by around 70 percent of the experts surveyed, who saw this intensive networking as a driver of international democratization efforts.

Innovative broadband Internet applications in particular are regarded as a key factor for economic development in the triad countries. Innovative technologies help nations become integrated into the globalization process, while at the same time generating benefits for their economies. This was confirmed by around 90 percent of the international experts surveyed.

But which countries and regions are likely to play a key role in the broadband Internet market and evolve towards the information society over the next few years? According to the experts in this survey, North American dominance of the global information society has already peaked and will now undergo a gradual but steady decline. The strongest growth prospects are now expected in Europe and Asia (see Fig. 59).

Fig. 59:		Dominant regions in the global information society (International experts)

Broadband Internet is the nucleus and prerequisite to ensure the successful development of the global information society. The better the facilities available for communicating, trading or exchanging information via broadband Internet, the greater the impact on the global information society. The survey therefore asked the experts for their views on the growth potential for broadband Internet. Here again, better prospects were seen in Asia and Europe than in other parts of the world (see Fig. 60).

Fig. 60:		Global growth potential for broadband Internet (International experts)

The pace of global broadband growth in any given country also depends on its existing broadband Internet situation. For a closer look at this aspect, the experts were asked to forecast the future growth of broadband Internet in per “country category”, i.e. for today’s “leading countries” (e.g. Korea, Denmark, Switzerland, Finland), “mid-range countries” (e.g. Germany, France, France, UK), and “late starters” (e.g. Poland, Turkey, Mexico).

The international experts saw outstanding growth prospects for broadband Internet in all regions. By 2015 they expected that the leading countries, i.e. those that already have a high-quality broadband infrastructure, to reach a market penetration level of over 60 percent. For the mid-range countries, with a correspondingly less highly developed infrastructure, they predicted average penetration levels of over 50 percent. And even the countries currently classified as late starters in terms of their broadband infrastructure were expected to reach an average market penetration of over 30 percent (see Fig. 61). To sum up: far from being exhausted, growth will now be spread globally over a broader base.

Fig. 61:		International comparison of market penetration of fixed broadband Internet (International experts)11

The consumers surveyed agreed. A particularly important priority for them involved utilizing the growing global penetration of broadband Internet to advance social and community projects around the world, with a special focus on development cooperation. Around 70 percent of respondents saw access to broadband Internet services as an essential prerequisite for narrowing the international divide in terms of living standards and economic development.

The next section discusses the opportunities still open to broadband Internet providers in the global broadband Internet market, and in particular the trends that will define the nature of the market.